conformation

“Oh, look at that, they’re finally going to war. I told you, didn’t I? Those idiots will be crying, snot running, begging for mercy, and the Western big shots won’t give a damn. Thanks to them, I’m cashing out my oil long position with a fat profit.”

└ Yo, just here on a pilgrimage to the holy land.

└ As expected from BearHunter, the dude talks like a street prophet, but this guy’s legit. Never seen him wrong about Russia, for real.

└ Come on, you’re Putin, aren’t you? Or maybe National Intelligence Service? Fess up!

“National Intelligence Service, my ass. I’ve already been through their interrogations, you moron.”

The comments are buzzing, calling me the Oracle BearHunter or Putin de Nostradamus, claiming I’ve seen the future. But all that occult nonsense just makes me scoff.

Russia. That Russia. The same bullheaded, stubborn country that never changes, no matter how many times the political system, ideology, or regime gets a makeover.

If a person can change in ten years, how come a country doesn’t budge after 150? Pathetic.

Even a nobody like me can predict where this country’s headed these days.

“Anyone out there crazy enough to short natural gas while the charts are going berserk? Or maybe you’ve got a hero complex?

The graph hasn’t even started yet. If you think you can stomach a 9.0-magnitude earthquake in natural gas prices, go ahead and try. Otherwise, just wait a year. It’ll crash hard, and you’ll get your chance to go long again.

How do I know? Ha, it’s Russia. They’ll grit their teeth, refuse to admit they’re struggling, then go around groveling for cheap deals while jacking up prices when they’re pissed.”

└ Damn, I read your last post and was waiting for the perfect short. Missed it!

└ Get out of my head while I’m still asking nicely. This is your last warning.

└ Big bro, the price tripled in a month since the war started. How am I supposed to sit this out? If I split my shorts five times and just one hits, I’m set for life!

└ (OP) Go for it. If you wanna sink your entire fortune into Russia’s earthquake, be my guest.

I’ll give them that. They don’t get how Russia’s wars work, so they’re still yapping like that.

They probably think it’s a modern war, so it’ll be quick. Or that Ukraine’s got the West’s full backing, so it feels like Russia’s fighting the whole world.

“But in Russia, human lives are just part of their traditional culture of disregard.”

I sat down to write today’s blog post, tapping away at my laptop.

“I’ve said it a million times: Russia’s endgame is the same as always. They’ll call it a victory, throw a big party, but behind closed doors, they’ll be sobbing into their fists, nursing the deepest wounds.

Why? You ask?

Because that’s the deal they’ve made (nod nod).”

└ LOL, they’ve already signed the contract to end it like that, huh?

└ Who’d they make that deal with? Is there some treaty?

└ With Japan’s Environment Minister, obviously.

└ It’s a time-honored Slavic tradition. A victory with no gains. A victory only they celebrate. A victory nobody else acknowledges. While other powers milk wars for profit, this country scrapes its own strength to the bone and calls it kimchi.

My blog’s drowning in mockery and snark. I posted it, but despite the online noise, I mean every word.

Reading through the comments, my smirk doesn’t quite turn into a smile. Same old reactions.

“Ugh, I’m so fed up. So damn fed up.”

They’re reactive, dragged around, only to flip the table when things don’t go their way.

Diplomacy’s supposed to be give-and-take, like a trade. Mutual benefits come from that process.

But Russia? They either hand out bad checks they can’t cash or swallow something whole without opening their own wallet.

Diplomacy they can’t keep or gain from.

That’s been Russia’s style since the 19th century.

If their diplomacy’s such a mess, you think their domestic affairs are any better? Every country has its golden age and decline, but for Russia, the Soviet era—when people could barely eat—was their peak. Says it all.

“Not even a golden age. While America painted with gloss, Russia painted with its people’s blood.”

They’ve never been a normal country.

Common sense has never existed there.

It’s like the place runs on its own bizarre logic.

So why hasn’t Russia collapsed?

Oh, they’ve come close plenty of times. Napoleon almost did it. The Nazis nearly took the capital.

The reason they’re still here? One word.

Size.

They’ve bulldozed their way through history on sheer size. Not because they’re particularly good at anything. No real strengths.

Just vast land and population. Size. That’s how they’ve survived.

And even now, in the modern era, they’re still carving away at their own flesh.

I’m laughing with my blog subscribers now, but it wasn’t always like this.

I was a humanities kid, chasing dreams in history studies, wanting to travel the world and dig into the past.

But reality’s walls were too high. The world cares more about the future than the past.

So I decided to look forward—through the past.

Russia economic expert.

Stocks, bonds, futures, whatever. I can see how Russia will react clearer than day.

What? Oil prices going wild? Oh, they’ll sit back, then crank production to the max at the last minute.

Diplomacy not working? Send in the troops first. Worry about international justification later.

Opened up recklessly, and now foreign capital’s bleeding them dry? Domestic capital’s rotten too.

Alright, flip the board. Crush local capital, scare off the foreigners with a reign of terror. Hit the reset button!

Fairness? Common sense? That’s like a 160% voter turnout in that country. The result’s already decided; the process is just a formality.

It’s so predictable, I made bank sitting in my chair today. Cleared a 123% return on my oil long position.

War spikes, and Brent, Dubai, and Texas crude production goes through the roof.

“Time to start building new positions, little by little.”

If they’d justified the war step-by-step, made it feel like both sides had no choice, they wouldn’t be this cornered.

Or if they’d framed it as a local conflict, made Ukraine look like the one escalating, they wouldn’t be surrounded on all sides.

No, this war was doomed from the start.

The West ignored the dictator’s power grab.

NATO’s reckless eastward push clashed with plans to reintegrate the former Soviet sphere.

All of it was foreseeable.

And I made money off it… I did.

“…So why am I not laughing?”

The world told me to live for the future, so I rode that wave. I got results anyone would applaud, so why am I not happy?

“I’m the one who’s bummed out here.”

I keep telling myself it’s because of this tragic situation.

“Back then, reading a history book could keep me happy all day.”

The past, preserved only in records.

When I dug into events left in text and a few sketches, it felt like I was right there, in the middle of it.

History wasn’t just records—it was a way to experience it indirectly.

That’s how it used to be. I loved humanity’s past.

I felt the pain of tragic outcomes, empathized with sad histories.

And now, here I am…

“What went wrong with Russia today is pointless to debate now, but I’ll rant anyway.

Despite having as much potential as the U.S., this country’s been screwing up for ages.

You might blame the Soviet Union’s obsession with ideology, building a hollow empire, for why 21st-century Russia can’t even handle Ukraine. But I’m looking further back.

I’ll say it: this country’s been broken since the Tsarist era.”

“…Hm.”

I stopped typing, realizing I was getting carried away with some deep-seated grudge.

At this rate, I’d write 57,000 words instead of 5,700, and still not convince anyone.

So I dragged the mouse, highlighted everything, deleted it, and started over.

This time, short and light.

“Prove me wrong, and you’re a Slav by blood.”

There. Said everything I needed to.

Click. Uploaded.

They’ll mock and sneer as always, but I can’t sum it up any better.

Ding.

“Comments already?”

└ You think you’d have done better in their shoes?

└ (OP) Yo, Ivan.

└ Bet you wouldn’t have been much different. Or maybe worse.

└ (OP) Thanks for the Tatar opinion~

└ Now you’re crossing a line.

“Crossing a line? Sounds like they know Russia’s history is a mess.”

That’s why they’re getting heated, saying stuff like “it couldn’t be helped.”

So I decided to end it with a sharp jab.

└ (OP) I would’ve been different.

Unless I got dropped in the middle of a revolution and died instantly, I’d have been different.

As someone who’s studied Russia’s history obsessively, I can say that with confidence.

Because, like that commenter said, I’ve thought “if it were me…” thousands of times.

The guy didn’t reply for a while, probably out of arguments. Just as I thought he’d run from the logic fight, a new comment popped up.

└ Then let’s find out.

Find out? What, is he challenging me to a strategy sim duel? How else are we supposed to “find out”?

“Find out, my ass—”

That’s as far as I got. My muttering cut off, against my will.

When I could finally speak again, a voice hit my ears first.

“His Imperial Highness, Tsesarevich Nikolai Alexandrovich Romanov, legitimate heir to the Emperor, Grand Duke and Crown Prince of the Great Empire!”

“We warmly welcome our distinguished guests. I am Prince Takehito of Arisugawa, tasked by His Majesty the Emperor to extend our hospitality.”

Words I couldn’t comprehend, paired with a slight bow from the man before me.

He seemed older, but he bowed, so I awkwardly returned a slight nod.

The Asian man in front of me looked startled.

But I was even more shocked by the scenery now sinking in.

“…Where am I?”

Waves crashing, a harbor dock. A massive ship to the side.

And in front of me, uniformed Asians a head shorter than me.

Russian. Japanese. Imperial Japanese uniforms, iron ships. And their introductions—crown prince, prince—rang clear in my ears.

“Oh.”

This is Nikolai II’s Eastern tour as crown prince.

The year, if I recall…